Author’s note: As I write this entry, I stand united with the people of Ukraine. I'm also very concerned about this conflict becoming WWIII, all because a tyrant wants the world to bend their knees to him. This is a disturbingly familiar story, but this time with added nukes.
Climate News That Has Been Overwhelmed By Ukraine
As I sit here and begin writing this, it’s 73oF in Laurel MD after a low of 60oF overnight. But also, as the savvy global warming activists (should) know, what goes on from day-to-day in a small area does not inform us on whether warming is occurring on a global scale. While it is lovely here at the moment, winter storm warnings are up from Dallas-Fort Worth into the lower Ohio Valley for snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
Speaking of global warming, here is the average temperature anomalies for last month over the full globe. Interesting to note that the coldest place relative to normal was eastern North America, especially adjacent areas of Canada and the U.S, Averaged globally, the mean temperature of 53.6°F (12.0°C) was 1.60°F (0.89°C) above the 20th-century average and ranked as the sixth-warmest January in the 143-year record.
Methane news
As for CH4, we’ve covered it and its greenhouse gas impacts in earlier diaries, including from yours truly. As I mentioned in that diary, the reason CH4 is such a concern is its potency; over 20 years, it has about 80 times the impact of CO2. It currently is the cause of 30% of observed global warming. Finally, national energy sector CH4 emissions, reported to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are 70% lower than measurements performed by research studies.
The rest of the information in the CH4 section relies on the IEA’s updated Global Methane Tracker, which has been enhanced in recent years with new data sources from real-time observations from satellites, for example. Documentation of its data sources and calculation methods are found in this publication. In the graphic below, we see that from all sources, the most CH4 emissions in 2021 came from wetland processes; followed by human activities in agriculture, carbon-based energy production, and decay of waste products. Note that the emissions breakdown among oil, gas, and coal is about even (the much smaller green part of the bar represents emissions from biofuel production).
Looking at just human sources, came from agriculture (42.4%), with energy from coal, oil, gas, and biofuels close behind at 37.9%.
Next we will see the importance of scientific, objective measurements of human-derived CH4 emissions. Below, we compare what is reported by the IEA for global CH4 emissions versus the total reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Note that the IEA shows higher emissions than the total reported to the UNFCCC in every human endeavor involving the generation of methane.
And what a surprise! The biggest difference is in the energy sector, where actions to reduce emissions are resisted by energy companies, with the acquiescence and even active participation of government.
Last November at COP26, at least a glimmer of hope appeared as the Global Methane Pledge, which would reduce methane emissions 30% globally by 2030. While not binding, at least it provides a framework for a way to keep global warming to within 1.5oC. An inducement to keeping to promised made in this agreement is that, for the first time, the Global Methane Tracker is, for the first time, able to break down emissions by country. This will allow for an independent determination of whether promises made do become promises kept.
New Assessment of Wildfire Risk Worldwide
The UN Environmental Program (UNEP) released a report on global warming and its potential impact on extreme fires in the environment.
The scientists who performed the research for the UNEP, project a global increase of extreme fires of up to 14% by 2030, 30% by the end of 2050 and 50% by 2100.
The rapid change in fire conditions seen in the last several years was seen to make the analysis necessary according to one of the lead report editors, Andrew Sullivan, who works for the Commonwealth scientific and Industrial Research Organization in Canberra, Australia. Recall that Australia has had a series of droughts and wildfires that have killed over one BILLION animals, including potentially endangered koala bears.
Over the last two years, extreme wildfires have occurred in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Some have been of unprecedented size and have occurred in unexpected seasons, like the recent Marshall Fire that destroyed about 1,000 suburban homes near Boulder, Colorado in late December. Since the new year, large and intense fires have ravaged parts of Argentina and Chile, including Patagonian forests that have rarely seen large fires. Many towns and cities in this area have also seen their highest temperatures on record.
The report admits there is really no way to eliminate wildfires; indeed they are a natural part of nature’s management of the ecosystem. However, better management may help in some cases, for example in California (e.g. Paradise CA wildfire in 2020), and anywhere development bumps up against the wilderness. Needless to say, stopping and hopefully reversing global warming would be most helpful.
Drought Around the World
Drought is expected to become a problem for an increasing number of countries around the globe. At present, drought and other agriculturally impactful weather has been occurring in a number of areas. We discuss each region below. For the California drought, see my diary from last week.
Madagascar
First drought and then four tropical cyclones in a month! While the cyclones broke the drought, the damage they wrought made food insecurity for this impoverished country even worse. The drought itself was marginally attributable to global warming, but because of the susceptibility of this country to drought, almost all of the cause is considered to be natural climate variability.
Argentina/Brazil/Paraguay/Uruguay
I mentioned the wildfires in the previous section in Argentina and Paraguay. These have been accompanied by unprecedented heat and dryness in these areas as well. The area is an important area for soybean, corn, and wheat, as well as an important provider of beef.
West Africa: Northern Sahel
The northern Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali, and Mauritania) have been suffering from both extreme drought and internal conflicts. Both are contributing to food insecurity in the area.
East Africa
In East Africa, the latest seasonal climate forecast shows an increased likelihood for a fourth consecutive poor rainfall season for MAM 2022 in the eastern Horn of Africa, northern Ethiopia, and Kenya, consistent with the current La Nina event.