Climate Brief: Using satellite data to verify country-by-country methane emissions

Introduction

Ready for some really cool stuff that potentially will help with greenhouse gas mitigation?

Using satellite sensors, we can map both carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) leaks from oil and natural gas wells, oil and gas pipelines, landfills, thawing permafrost, and other places with greenhouse gas emissions. The banner above shows a satellite-observed CH₄ leak in the Permian Basin in Texas. from two gas wells and a compressor station. The compressor station maintains the flow of gas in the pipeline. Methane is of particular concern because:

• It is an extremely strong greenhouse gas (85 times more potent than CO₂ for its first 20 years in the atmosphere).
• It is currently contributing at least 25% to total anthropogenic global warming
• According to the Environmental Defense Fund, it is the cheapest greenhouse gas to reduce  emissions

Discovering a Gas Leak In Russia

What grabbed my attention about this greenhouse gas detection technology was an article in the Washington Post on October 19^th. It began with the June 4 discovery of a significant gas leak from a Gazprom pipeline in the Russian state of Tartarstan. (Note: Gazprom is the largest (and state-owned) natural gas company in Russia.) This discovery was made by the Copernicus Sentinel-5Pa, a European Space Agency (ESA) satellite launched four years ago, on one of its 14 daily orbits over the Earth. When the leak was discovered, it was putting 395 metric tons of CH₄ into the atmosphere per hour, This is the equivalent of a whopping 33,575 metric tons of CO₂ per hour, in terms of effectiveness as a greenhouse gas.

News of this emission leaked to the press, and Gazprom was asked about it about two weeks later. The natural gas giant admitted to the leak, but would not give further information. However, a Washington Post photographer was able to use the satellite information to locate the gas leak, and took a photo of the area after confirming using identifying markers, deep truck tire tracks, and an excavation in that area. Without the satellite data, knowing about and subsequently find the leak location would not have been possible.

Problems with Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Reported by Country

The article went on to explain the significance of greenhouse gas detection, which will be important in the context of the upcoming COP26 summit in Scotland. Historically, countries have reported their greenhouse gas emissions to the U.N. based on differing sources and methods from year to year, which often results in large changes from year to year. These sources and methods can, needless to say, result in underestimates. Below we show a particularly egregious example from the Russian Federation. 

After a major upward adjustment from 2014 to 2015, Russia’s self-reported CH₄ emission estimates fell to the lowest on record in 2020 and 2021.

The explanation from the Russians for this, according to the Washington Post:

As for the changing numbers, Anna Romanovskaya, a scientist and director of the government-organized Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, said the shifts reflect more accurate information. The most recent numbers are “a result of analysis of new data on methane emissions obtained directly from companies in the oil and gas sector,” she said in a statement.

(author emphasis added)

However, using satellite technology, the emission values in Russia amounted to 8.3 million tons per year, more than double the Russian estimate. Ninety percent of those emissions came from Russia’s vast oil and gas region. Under-reporting by the oil and gas companies might have been the reason for the discrepancy.

Current Satellite-Based CH₄ Measurement Capabilities

We’ve already mentioned the Copernicus Sentinel-5Pa belonging to the ESA, that’s been monitoring CH₄ for the last four years. NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite instrument was used to reconcile a discrepancy in the increased estimates of CH₄ from the early 2000s to later estimates from 2007-2014, this during a period of rapidly increasing CH₄ concentrations but decreasing forest burning. MODIS and other NASA satellite measurements were used to determine that the reduction in CH₄ resulting from decreased forest burning was double the original estimate. Other satellites used by NASA and other global satellite centers also provide information for CH₄  detection and concentration estimates.

More Satellite Sensor Technology In the Pipeline

Carbon Mapper

There are at least two NGOs working on the CH₄  measurement problem. One of them, Carbon Mapper, Inc., is working with a number of institutions to pursue its mission, as stated on its main mission page:

There is an urgent need for a wide range of actions to accelerate CH₄ and CO₂ mitigation, climate adaptation and conservation. Barriers include high costs for methane leak detection, gaps in self-reported CO₂ data for key emission sectors, incomplete observations of priority regions at scales relevant for decision making, and lack of data accessibility and transparency. Our airborne pilot projects, using advanced remote sensing technology, are demonstrating the potential for an operational satellite data service that can help accelerate sub-national climate action. We plan to:

• Persistently pinpoint, quantify and track strong CH₄ and CO₂ emissions at facility scale
• Offer a rapid methane leak detection service to facility operators and regulators
• Deliver independent data to help certify methane intensity for oil and gas supply chains
• Increase global accessibility, transparency and understanding of CH₄ and CO₂ data
• Work with key partners to advance new data-driven emission mitigation strategies

A broad summary of functional areas and contributors to each is shown in the graphic below.

MethaneSAT

MethaneSAT is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), a non-profit organization that’s been among those on the front lines of environmental preservation and, relevant here, CH₄ and its impact on the environment. It is working with Harvard University’s Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics on the launch of a state of the art satellite devoted to both detecting point and area sources of CH₄, providing high-precision detection about five times more sensitive than currently available technology. Further, it’ll supplement existing data to fill in gaps that exist between global/areal and location (point source) mapping of emissions.

For all satellite sensors, improvements in sensitivity and the resolution of raw data, and in using the raw data for CH4 emissions calculations at individual and area-wide sources, will be ongoing.

COP26 Will Need Validated CH4 Emissions

COP26 has an ambitious set of goals for its conference starting next week in Glasgow (from the COP26 goals webpage):

1.  Secure global net zero by mid-century and keep 1.5 degrees within reach

2.  Adapt to protect communities and natural habitats

3.  Mobilize finance

4.  Work together to deliver

The organizers of COP26 (and anyone concerned about anthropogenic global warming) rightly believe that time is of the essence.

All of the goals above are contingent on countries meeting the new emission reduction goals that will be set at COP26 as part of goal one. Meeting goal one will help reduce the cost of adaptation (goal two). That the countries of the world are indeed working together to deliver (goal four) will require verification that each country is meeting its target emissions goals. That verification will come from the satellite data provided by satellite remote sensing of CH₄ emissions and concentrations, as well as those of other greenhouse gases, funding of which is part of goal three.

Will we actually work together in a quantifiable way once COP26 is in the rear view mirror? That remains to be seen. Stay tuned.